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以全国160站汛期(6-8月)降水量为预测量,以最新得到的74项环流特征量指数为因子,尝试制作全国160站汛期降水滚动预测.建立模型时考虑了预测量与环流特征量因子序列的显著线性变化趋势,以及预测量与环流因子之间的相关不稳定性,用"滑动相关-逐步回归-集合分析"预测方法,分别建立了2009年全国160站汛期降水量的物理统计集合分析预测模型,并进行了近10年独立样本预测试验分析.结果显示:(1)用物理统计集合分析预测方法,以最新得到的74项环流特征量指数为因子,实现了全国160站汛期降水逐月滚动预测,2009年以在5月份制作的滚动预测效果最好.(2)近10年预测试验的空间距平相关系数Acc、业务评分PS和异常级评分TS均高于国家气候中心近年汛期预测业务平均水平.经过不断改进思路和优化具体建模方案,该方法具有较高的业务应用潜力. 相似文献
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通过Z指数法和降水资料对昌吉地区8个国家级气象观测站37a(1971—2007年)的旱涝变化趋势和时空分布特征研究,发现昌吉州各地降水和旱涝变化具有一致性.20世纪70年代以来,各地具有由偏旱转为偏涝的趋势,其中,西部地区的偏涝速度最快,东部地区的偏涝速度最慢.各地出现干旱的频率高于雨涝的频率,其中,西部出现干旱频率最大,东部最小;相反,西部出现雨涝的频率最小,东部最大. 相似文献
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Field, laboratory, and numerical modelling research are increasingly demonstrating the potential of riparian tree colonization and growth to influence fluvial dynamics and the evolution of fluvial landforms. This paper jointly analyses multi‐temporal, multispectral ASTER data, continuous river stage and discharge data, and field observations of the growth rates of the dominant riparian tree species (Populus nigra) along a 21 km reach of the Tagliamento River, Italy. Research focuses on the period 2004–2009, during which there was a bankfull flood on 24 October 2004, followed by 2 years with low water levels, nearly 2 years with only modest flow pulses, and then a final period from 15 August 2008 that included several intermediate to bankfull flow events. This study period of increasing flow disturbance allows the exploration of vegetation dynamics within the river's active corridor under changing flow conditions. The analysis demonstrates the utility of ASTER data for investigating vegetation dynamics along large fluvial corridors and reveals both spatial and temporal variations in the expansion, coalescence, and erosion of vegetated patches within the study reach. Changes in the extent of the vegetated area and its dynamics vary along the study reach. In sub‐reaches where riparian tree growth is vigorous, the vegetated area expands rapidly during time periods without channel‐shaping flows, and is subsequently able to resist erosion by bankfull floods. In contrast, in sub‐reaches where tree growth is less vigorous, the vegetated area expands at a slower rate and is more readily re‐set by bankfull flood events. This illustrates that the rate of growth of riparian trees is crucial to their ability to contribute actively to river corridor dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Zhen Tao Quanzhou Gao Wenping Guo Zhengang Wang Yongling Zhang Chenji Xie Xiakun Huang Hongwei Zhong 《山地科学学报》2011,8(5):694-703
A whole year analysis of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the Xijiang River (XJR), South China, showed that the mean riverine DOC concentration (1.24 mg L-1) in the XJR was notably lower than the averaged value (5.75 mg L-1) of the global riverine DOC concentration in several major rivers. There is an inconspicuous monthly fluctuation of the DOC signal in the XJR, but on a semi-yearly time scale, however, the riverine DOC concentration had significant difference between hydrological... 相似文献
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